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Existing Home Sales Bounce Back In March According To The Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast
Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects March Sales of 5.32 Million Units (SAAR) and a Median Sales Price of $220,218

IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., March 29, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X (formerly Auction.com), the nation's leading online real estate marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which projects a rebound in existing home sales for March following a rash of regulatory and weather-related closing delays. According to the nowcast, March existing home sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.15 and 5.55 million, with a targeted number of 5.32 million – a 4.8 percent increase from the previous month and a 2.6 percent year-over-year gain.

Ten-X (PRNewsFoto/Ten-X)

"Though U.S. home sales have seen significant volatility in recent months due to external factors, sales remain at a high overall level," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "The housing market stands on solid ground despite global economic volatility and weaker U.S. GDP growth, with the firmer labor market and enhanced household budgets from low oil providing a boost to consumer confidence."

Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) reported a sizeable drop-off in sales for February to 5.08 million units, down 7.1 percent from January, though up 2.2 percent year over year. The severity of the decline took most by surprise as the number also fell outside both the Ten-X nowcast and the consensus forecast ranges.

"Both January and February home sales were slightly better than a year ago, and our nowcast predicts that March will continue that trend," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "But inventory levels remain low, and home price appreciation continues to outpace wage growth. These factors suggest that, even with mortgage rates near their historic lows, a return to more 'normal' levels of home sales is still off in the distance."

NAR recently reported a 4.4 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $210,800 for February, marking the 48th consecutive month of year-over-year gains and falling within the range of $209,607 to $231,671 predicted by Ten-X in last month's nowcast. Findings from the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $209,207 and $231,229 in the month of March with a targeted price of $220,218, representing 4.5 percent month-over-month and year-over-year gains.

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales

(in millions)

Auction.com Point
Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Auction.com Predicted
Range

(SAR in millions)

January 2015

4.82

5.01

4.83 – 5.19

February 2015

4.89

5.03

4.87 – 5.19

March 2015

5.19

5.06

4.90 - 5.22

April 2015

5.04

5.33

5.16 – 5.50

May 2015

5.32

5.31

5.14 – 5.48

June 2015

5.48

5.53

5.35 – 5.71

July 2015

5.58

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2015

5.31

5.64

5.46 – 5.82

September 2015

5.55

5.40

5.23 – 5.57

October 2015

5.36

5.44

5.26 – 5.61

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

TBD

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Auction.com
Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Auction.com
Predicted Range

January 2015

$197,600

5.2%

$205,126

9.2%

$194,869 - $215,382

February 2015

$201,900

7.2%

$201,077

6.7%

$191,023 - $211,131

March 2015

$210,700

7.1%

$204,165

3.8%

$193,956 - $214,373

April 2015

$219,400

8.9%

$211,633

5.0%

$201,052 - $222,215

May 2015

$228,700

7.9%

$220,799

4.2%

$209,759 - $231,839

June 2015

$236,400

6.5%

$228,929

3.1%

$222,098 - $245,477

July 2015

$234,000

5.6%

$239,126

7.9%

$227,170 - $251,082

August 2015

$228,700

4.7%

$230,666

5.6%

$219,132 - $242,199

September 2015

$221,900

6.1%

$227,760

8.9%

$216,372 - $239,148

October 2015

$219,600

5.8%

$225,546

8.7%

$214,269 - $236,824

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 - $236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 - $234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

March 2016

TBD

TBD

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - $231,229

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X (formerly Auction.com) is the nation's leading online real estate marketplace, having sold 200,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $37 billion since 2007. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions entirely online.Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

Logo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20160106/319955LOGO

SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: The Hoyt Organization, Kent Barrett, kbarrett@hoytorg.com; Katherine Lambert, klambert@hoytorg.com, (310) 373-0103
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