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Existing Home Sales Continue To Heat Up Heading Into Summer According To The Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast
Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects May Sales of 5.65 Million Units (SAAR) And a Median Sales Price of $238,418

IRVINE Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., May 31, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which projects continued growth in existing home sales for May. According to the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast, May existing home sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.47 and 5.83 million, with a targeted number of 5.65 million – a 3.7 percent increase from April and a 6.2 percent year-over-year gain.

Ten-X (PRNewsFoto/Ten-X)

"Though ongoing issues with affordability and low inventory continue to hold back stronger sales growth, the recent increase in home sales is encouraging and indicative of a solid U.S. housing market supported by positive underlying fundamentals," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "A strong labor market is adding a solid number of jobs, unemployment remains low despite a rising labor force, wage growth is starting to accelerate, lower energy prices are supporting consumer spending, and low mortgage rates are enticing for homebuyers. Despite facing some broader economic headwinds, market demand remains healthy."

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported a 1.7 percent year-over-year increase in sales to 5.45 million units in April, rising from the upwardly revised 5.36 million rate in March. Last month's nowcast also called for an increase in April sales between 5.34 and 5.70 million units, with a target of 5.52.

The NAR also reported a 6.3 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $232,500 for April, marking the 50th consecutive month of year-over-year gains and falling within the range of $218,770 - $241,798 predicted by Ten-X in last month's nowcast. Findings from the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $226,497 and $250,339 in the month of May with a targeted price of $238,418, representing 2.5 percent month-over-month and 4.2 percent year-over-year gains.

"Home sales are extraordinarily strong, considering how low inventory levels are and how difficult it still is for many buyers to qualify for loans," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "One thing worth watching over the coming months is affordability. Home price appreciation continues to outpace wage growth in many markets, and we're seeing indications that this may be slowing down sales volume in some of the regions where home prices had been accelerating most rapidly."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales

(in millions)

Auction.com Point
Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Auction.com Predicted
Range

(SAR in millions)

January 2015

4.82

5.01

4.83 – 5.19

February 2015

4.89

5.03

4.87 – 5.19

March 2015

5.19

5.06

4.90 - 5.22

April 2015

5.04

5.33

5.16 – 5.50

May 2015

5.32

5.31

5.14 – 5.48

June 2015

5.48

5.53

5.35 – 5.71

July 2015

5.58

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2015

5.31

5.64

5.46 – 5.82

September 2015

5.55

5.40

5.23 – 5.57

October 2015

5.36

5.44

5.26 – 5.61

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

5.36

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

April 2016

5.45

5.52

5.34 – 5.70

May 2016

TBD

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Auction.com
Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Auction.com
Predicted Range

January 2015

$197,600

5.2%

$205,126

9.2%

$194,869 - $215,382

February 2015

$201,900

7.2%

$201,077

6.7%

$191,023 - $211,131

March 2015

$210,700

7.1%

$204,165

3.8%

$193,956 - $214,373

April 2015

$219,400

8.9%

$211,633

5.0%

$201,052 - $222,215

May 2015

$228,700

7.9%

$220,799

4.2%

$209,759 - $231,839

June 2015

$236,400

6.5%

$228,929

3.1%

$222,098 - $245,477

July 2015

$234,000

5.6%

$239,126

7.9%

$227,170 - $251,082

August 2015

$228,700

4.7%

$230,666

5.6%

$219,132 - $242,199

September 2015

$221,900

6.1%

$227,760

8.9%

$216,372 - $239,148

October 2015

$219,600

5.8%

$225,546

8.7%

$214,269 - $236,824

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 - $236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 - $234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

March 2016

$222,700

5.7%

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - $231,229

April 2016

$232,500

6.0%

$230,284

5.0%

$218,770 - $241,798

May 2016

TBD

TBD

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 200,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $37 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

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SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: The Hoyt Organization, Kent Barrett, kbarrett@hoytorg.com, Katherine Lambert, klambert@hoytorg.com, (310) 373-0103
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