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Existing Home Sales Momentum Slows Down In June According To The Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast
Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects June Sales of 5.56 Million Units (SAAR) And a Median Sales Price of $243,833

IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., June 30, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which projects existing home sales to remain fairly range-bound in June. According to the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast, June existing home sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.38 and 5.74 million, with a targeted number of 5.56 million – a slight 0.5 percent increase from May and a 1.4 percent year-over-year gain.

Ten-X (PRNewsFoto/Ten-X)

"Despite facing broader economic headwinds following a disappointing May jobs report, slowing U.S. GDP growth, and uncertainty in global markets, the U.S. housing market remains on solid footing," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "We continue to hold a positive outlook for housing supported by accelerating wage growth, an accommodative labor market and low interest rates, though persistent issues with declining affordability and low inventory will likely limit stronger gains in sales."

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase in sales to 5.53 million units in May, rising from a downwardly revised 5.43 million rate in April and marking the highest annual sales rate since February 2007. Last month's Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast also called for an increase in May sales between 5.47 and 5.83 million units, with a target of 5.65.

The NAR also reported a 4.7 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $239,700 for May, marking the 51st consecutive month of year-over-year gains and nearly matching the prediction of $238,418 that Ten-X made in last month's nowcast. Findings from the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast now suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $231,642 and $256,025 in the month of June with a targeted price of $243,833, representing 1.7 percent month-over-month and 3.1 percent year-over-year gains.

"It will be interesting to see if the recent Brexit vote will have a measurable near-term impact on the U.S. housing market," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "We could see interest rates reach a new low, possibly stimulating buying activity by improving affordability. Or we could see an influx of foreign capital, as investors look towards U.S. real estate in a flight to safety. Either of these could significantly change the current market trajectory."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home Sales

(in millions)

Auction.com Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Auction.com Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

January 2015

4.82

5.01

4.83 – 5.19

February 2015

4.89

5.03

4.87 – 5.19

March 2015

5.19

5.06

4.90 - 5.22

April 2015

5.04

5.33

5.16 – 5.50

May 2015

5.32

5.31

5.14 – 5.48

June 2015

5.48

5.53

5.35 – 5.71

July 2015

5.58

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2015

5.31

5.64

5.46 – 5.82

September 2015

5.55

5.40

5.23 – 5.57

October 2015

5.36

5.44

5.26 – 5.61

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

5.36

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

April 2016

5.45

5.52

5.34 – 5.70

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

TBD

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Auction.com Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Auction.com
Predicted Range

January 2015

$197,600

5.2%

$205,126

9.2%

$194,869 - $215,382

February 2015

$201,900

7.2%

$201,077

6.7%

$191,023 - $211,131

March 2015

$210,700

7.1%

$204,165

3.8%

$193,956 - $214,373

April 2015

$219,400

8.9%

$211,633

5.0%

$201,052 - $222,215

May 2015

$228,700

7.9%

$220,799

4.2%

$209,759 - $231,839

June 2015

$236,400

6.5%

$228,929

3.1%

$222,098 - $245,477

July 2015

$234,000

5.6%

$239,126

7.9%

$227,170 - $251,082

August 2015

$228,700

4.7%

$230,666

5.6%

$219,132 - $242,199

September 2015

$221,900

6.1%

$227,760

8.9%

$216,372 - $239,148

October 2015

$219,600

5.8%

$225,546

8.7%

$214,269 - $236,824

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 - $236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 - $234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

March 2016

$222,700

5.7%

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - $231,229

April 2016

$232,500

6.0%

$230,284

5.0%

$218,770 - $241,798

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

TBD

TBD

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 200,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $39 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

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SOURCE Ten-X

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