Existing Home Sales To Stabilize In August According To The Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast

Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects August Sales of 5.53 Million Units (SAAR) And a Median Sales Price of $248,256 on the Heels of July's Disappointing Performance

IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Aug. 31, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which projects existing home sales to stabilize in August. According to the nowcast, August existing home sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.35 and 5.71 million, with a targeted number of 5.53 million – a 2.5 percent increase from July and a 4.1 percent year-over-year gain.

Ten-X

These findings come on the heels of the housing market's unexpectedly lackluster performance in July, which may have been caused by increasing global economic concerns and uncertainty regarding the US presidential election, in addition to ongoing inventory and affordability constraints. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported 3.2 percent month-over-month and a 1.6 percent year-over-year decreases in sales to 5.39 million units in July, within the nowcast's revised range of 5.38 to 5.74 million.

"July existing home sales were disappointing – down on both a month-to-month and year-over-year basis," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "At least part of the drop can be attributed to continuing low inventory and rising home prices which may be causing affordability issues in some markets. But there are also indications that activity from international investors may be slowing down, which could have a negative impact on sales going forward."  

The NAR also recently reported a 5.3 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $244,100 for July, marking the 53rd consecutive month of year-over-year gains and falling within the range of $238,114 to $263,179 that Ten-X predicted in last month's nowcast. Findings from the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast now suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $235,843 and $260,669 in the month of August with a targeted price of $248,256, representing 1.7 percent month-over-month and 8.6 percent year-over-year gains.

"Though sales figures from July seem less encouraging than in recent months, housing continues to float in a healthy range and the high overall sales level signals that the US housing market remains on solid footing," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio, noting that headline employment figures have regained their stride in the past two months, unemployment remains low, wage growth continues to progress, and low interest rates are opportunistic for homebuyers. "It's far too soon to say whether last month's dip in sales activity is merely an anomaly, a symptom on month-to-month volatility, or perhaps a sign that the market is beginning to cool off."

 About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home Sales

(in millions)

Auction.com Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Auction.com Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

August 2015

5.31

5.64

5.46 – 5.82

September 2015

5.55

5.40

5.23 – 5.57

October 2015

5.36

5.44

5.26 – 5.61

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

5.33

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

April 2016

5.45

5.52

5.34 – 5.70

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

TBD

5.53

5.35 – 5.71

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X



Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported Existing Home Price

YoY % Change

Auction.com Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Auction.com Predicted Range

August 2015

$228,700

4.7%

$230,666

5.6%

$219,132 - $242,199

September 2015

$221,900

6.1%

$227,760

8.9%

$216,372 - $239,148

October 2015

$219,600

5.8%

$225,546

8.7%

$214,269 - $236,824

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 - $236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 - $234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

March 2016

$222,700

5.7%

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - $231,229

April 2016

$232,500

6.0%

$230,284

5.0%

$218,770 - $241,798

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

TBD

TBD

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 244,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $41 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

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SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655