Fall Home Sales Cool Off According To The September Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast

Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects September Existing Home Sales of 5.27 Million Units (SAAR) and a Median Sales Price of $239,268

IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Sept. 29, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which projects continued cooling for existing home sales in September. According to the nowcast, September sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.1 and 5.44 million, with a targeted number of 5.27 million – down 1.2 percent from August and 5.1 percent from a year ago.

Ten-X

These findings follow yet another month of lackluster housing market performance in August. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported a .09 percent dip in August existing home sales to 5.33 million units (SAAR). Though sales have declined for two consecutive months, they remain 0.8 percent higher than a year ago.

"After a strong start to 2016, the housing market has settled back into the kind of slow, gradual recovery we've seen over the past few years," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "Three powerful headwinds continue to hamper the recovery: extraordinarily low inventory – especially for entry level buyers; rising home prices, which are beginning to affect affordability in certain markets; and unusually tight credit, which makes borrowing difficult for all but the most highly qualified borrowers."  

The NAR also recently reported a 5.1 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $240,200 for August, marking the 54th consecutive month of year-over-year gains and falling within the range of $235,843 - $260,669 that Ten-X predicted in last month's nowcast. Findings from the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast now suggest that September sales prices for existing homes will fall between $227,305 and $251,232 with a targeted price of $239,268, representing a 7.8 percent year-over-year gain.

"Though monthly home sales seem to be cooling with the end of summer, high overall sales and continued home price growth signal solid underlying demand," said Ten-X Senior Quantitative Strategist Christopher Muoio, noting that a firm labor market, wage growth, low unemployment, and low mortgage rates remain supportive of home buying. "It's still too soon to say whether the recent two-month dip in sales activity is simply a matter of persistently low inventories and affordability concerns, or a sign of any larger trend."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

 


Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

September 2015

5.55

5.40

5.23 – 5.57

October 2015

5.36

5.44

5.26 – 5.61

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

5.33

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

April 2016

5.45

5.52

5.34 – 5.70

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

TBD

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 


Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point
Estimate

YoY % Change

Ten-X Predicted
Range

September 2015

$221,900

6.1%

$227,760

8.9%

$216,372 - $239,148

October 2015

$219,600

5.8%

$225,546

8.7%

$214,269 - $236,824

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 - $236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 - $234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

March 2016

$222,700

5.7%

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - $231,229

April 2016

$232,500

6.0%

$230,284

5.0%

$218,770 - $241,798

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

September 2016

TBD

TBD

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 244,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $41 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

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SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655