October Home Sales Dip Slightly According To The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast

Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects October Existing Home Sales of 5.38 Million Units (SAAR) and a Median Sales Price of $233,452

IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Oct. 27, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a slight decrease in October home sales. According to the nowcast, October sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.21 and 5.56 million, with a targeted number of 5.38 million – which is down 1.6 percent from September but up .5 percent from a year ago.

Ten-X

"As we move into the fourth quarter, it looks like both existing home and new home sales are going to finish the year pretty much where they were predicted to be at the beginning of the year – around 5.4 million existing home sales and between 550 - 600 thousand new home sales," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "Stubbornly low inventory and tight credit have combined to prevent a more robust housing market recovery in 2016, and it seems likely that 2017 will be more of the same."

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported that sales shifted back into a slightly higher range, rising 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 5.47 million units in September. This represents a 0.6 percent year-over-year increase but is still below this year's highest pace of 5.57 million units in June.

The NAR also recently reported a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $234,200 in September. This marks the 55th consecutive month of annual gains, which fell within the September nowcast range of $227,305 and $251,232. The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast suggests that median existing-home sales will range between $221,779 and $245,125 in October with a target price of $233,452, down 0.3 percent from September, but up 5.9 percent from a year ago.

"Both the September NAR numbers and October nowcast show that sales are returning to the higher end of our expected range for the year," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio, noting that a firm labor market, low unemployment, wage growth, and low mortgage rates continue to bolster housing demand. "Tight inventory levels continue to be a restraining factor, but the recent uptick of available homes continues to follow our expectation that higher prices will induce more listings."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing
Home Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted

Range

(SAR in millions)

October 2015

5.36

5.44

5.26 – 5.61

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

5.33

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

April 2016

5.45

5.52

5.34 – 5.70

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

TBD

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported

Existing

Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Ten-X Predicted Range

October 2015

$219,600

5.8%

$225,546

8.7%

$214,269 -

$236,824

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 -

$236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 -

$234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 -

$239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 -

$231,671

March 2016

$222,700

5.7%

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - 

$231,229

April 2016

$232,500

6.0%

$230,284

5.0%

$218,770 -

$241,798

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 -

$250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 -

$256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 -

$263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 -

$260,669

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 -

$251,232

October 2016

TBD

TBD

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 -

$245,125

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 244,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $41 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Google Capital and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

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SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655