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November Home Sales To Decrease Slightly According To The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast
Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model Projects November Existing Home Sales of 5.43 Million Units (SAAR) and a Median Sales Price of $232,306

IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Nov. 30, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a slight decrease in November existing home sales. According to the nowcast, November sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.26 and 5.61 million, with a targeted number of 5.43 million – down 3 percent from October, yet still 1.1 percent above the year ago level.

Ten-X (PRNewsFoto/Ten-X)

"There's been a lot of month-to-month volatility in both existing and new home sales recently, and a small drop-off in November after unexpectedly strong October existing home sales would simply continue this pattern," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "What will be interesting to watch is how the market responds to changing conditions. Will credit become more available if interest rates continue to rise? Will home prices need to slow down, or will they be offset by rising wages? The only certainty is that the 2017 housing market will be fascinating to watch unfold."

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) recently reported that October sales rose higher than expected, jumping up two percent to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 5.6 million units in October. This is 5.9 percent higher than a year ago, the highest year-over-year growth recorded since February 2007.

The NAR also recently reported a 6 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $233,200 in October. This increase marked the 56th consecutive month of annual gains and fell within the nowcast range of $214,269 and $236,824. The November Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing-home sales will temper in November, falling between $220,691 and $243,922 with a target price point of $232,306. While just marginally higher than October, this represents annual gains of 5.4 percent.

"October sales jumped higher than expected as we continue to see the zig zag pattern caused by the strong demand coupled with tight inventory," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio, noting that a firm labor market, low unemployment, wage growth, and low mortgage rates continue to be driving forces in the housing market. "The expected uptick in mortgage rates could create additional constraints in the market, but we could first see an initial rush to close before rates move higher. It's too early to fully gauge the potential 2017 impact."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

November 2015

4.76

5.37

5.20 – 5.54

December 2015

5.46

4.95

4.80 – 5.11

January 2016

5.47

5.29

5.13 – 5.47

February 2016

5.08

5.40

5.23 – 5.58

March 2016

5.33

5.32

5.15 – 5.55

April 2016

5.45

5.52

5.34 – 5.70

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

5.60

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

November 2016

TBD

5.43

5.26 – 5.61

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point
Estimate

YoY % Change

Ten-X Predicted
Range

November 2015

$220,300

6.3%

$225,323

8.7%

$214,057 - $236,589

December 2015

$224,100

7.6%

$223,322

7.3%

$212,156 - $234,488

January 2016

$213,800

8.2%

$228,251

15.5%

$216,839 - $239,664

February 2016

$210,800

4.4%

$220,639

9.3%

$209,607 - $231,671

March 2016

$222,700

5.7%

$220,218

4.5%

$209,207 - $231,229

April 2016

$232,500

6.0%

$230,284

5.0%

$218,770 - $241,798

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

October 2016

$232,200

6%

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 - $245,125

November 2016

TBD

TBD

$232,306

3.1%

$220,691 - $243,922

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 260,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling more than $43 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

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SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655
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