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Existing Home Sales Decrease To 5.50 Million Units In May According To Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast
Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model also projects a median sales price of $250,074

IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., May 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a slight decrease in May existing home sales. According to the nowcast, May sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) between 5.37 and 5.73 million with a targeted number of 5.50 million, down 1.2 percent from NAR's reported April sales and down .54 percent from a year ago.

Ten-X (PRNewsFoto/Ten-X)

"Two consecutive months of weaker existing home sales isn't cause for panic, but it does suggest that forecasts calling for a robust housing market may have been too optimistic," said Rick Sharga. "It appears that the combination of extraordinarily low inventory and home price appreciation that continues to outpace wage growth is slowing down sales, especially in some of the country's higher priced markets."

Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast predicted that existing home sales would take a slight step backward and the recent report from The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) confirmed this. NAR reported that existing home sales in April dropped to 5.57 million units, a 2.3 percent decrease from a downwardly revised 5.70 million in March, though still 1.6% higher than a year ago.

Last month's Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid year-over-year gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing home price for all housing types rose 6 percent year-over-year to $244,800 in April. This marks the 62nd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The May Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing home prices will continue to make annual strides falling between $237,570 - $262,577 with a target price point of $250,074, up 2.2 percent from April and a 4.3 percent gain from last year.

"Despite inventory constraints continuing to fuel price gains and curb affordability, demand is healthy and relatively low mortgage rates have enabled more buyers to enter the market," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "While there is some uncertainty over the possibility of another rate hike and its impact on affordability, the housing market remains on solid footing supported by a firm labor market and rising wages."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

5.60

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

November 2016

5.61

5.43

5.26 – 5.61

December 2016

5.49

5.51

5.33 - 5.69

January 2017

5.69

5.49

5.32 - 5.67

February 2017

5.48

5.51

5.34 – 5.69

March 2017

5.70

5.59

5.41 – 5.77

April 2017

5.57

5.66

5.4 – 5.76

May 2017

TBD

5.50

5.37 - 05.73

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point
Estimate

YoY % Change

Ten-X Predicted
Range

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

October 2016

$232,200

6%

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 - $245,125

November 2016

$234,900

6.8%

$232,306

3.1%

$220,691 - $243,922

December 2016

$232,200

4.0%

$233,346

4.1%

$221,679 - $245,013

January 2017

$228,900

7.1%

$232,918

2.0%

$221,272 - $244,564

February 2017

$228,400

7.7%

$231,638

9.9%

$220,056 – $243,220

March 2017

$236,400

6.8%

$232,511

4.4%

$220,885 - $244,136

April 2017

$244,800

6%

$242,158

4.2%

$230,050 - $254,266

May 2017

TBD

TBD

$250,074

4.3%

$237,570 - $262,577

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 292,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling almost $48 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655
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