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Existing Home Sales To Decrease Slightly In June According To Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast
Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model also projects another increase in median sales price

IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., June 28, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a slight decrease in June existing home sales. According to the Nowcast, June sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) between 5.28 and 5.64 million with a targeted number of 5.49 million, down 2.3 percent from NAR's reported May sales and down 0.7 percent from a year ago.

"Pending home sales numbers, mortgage applications and online search activity all suggest that the market for existing home sales may be cooling off slightly as we enter the summer months," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "It's possible that home purchases in the first half were accelerated by consumers trying to get deals done before interest rates increased. If that's the case, we may see existing home sales plateau for the balance of 2017."

Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to remain near their cycle highs, aligning with the recent the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) release, which showed a minor uptick in home sales from the month prior. NAR reported that existing home sales in May rose to 5.62 million units, a 1.1 percent gain from a downwardly revised 5.56 million in April. After the uptick, home sales are now 2.7% higher than a year ago.

Last month's Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid year-over-year gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing home price for all housing types rose 5.8 percent year-over-year to $252,800 in May. This marks the 63rd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The May Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing home prices will continue to make annual strides falling between $244,194 and $269,899 with a target price point of $257,046, up 1.7 percent from May and a 3.8 percent gain from last year.

"While sales keep edging up, historically low inventory levels continue to restrain the pace of growth. Meanwhile, intensifying competition between owner-occupants and increasingly active investors amid the low inventory situation, are generating substantial price increases," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "This price appreciation is beneficial for existing homeowners, but will continue to affect affordability. As long as the labor market remains strong and wages continue to increase, the housing market will remain on solid footing."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's Nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales
(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

May 2016

5.53

5.65

5.47 – 5.83

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

5.60

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

November 2016

5.61

5.43

5.26 – 5.61

December 2016

5.49

5.51

5.33 - 5.69

January 2017

5.69

5.49

5.32 - 5.67

February 2017

5.48

5.51

5.34 – 5.69

March 2017

5.70

5.59

5.41 – 5.77

April 2017

5.57

5.66

5.4 – 5.76

May 2017

5.62

5.50

5.37 - 5.73

June 2017

TBD

5.49

5.28 – 5.64

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point
Estimate

YoY %
Change

Ten-X Predicted
Range

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

October 2016

$232,200

6%

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 - $245,125

November 2016

$234,900

6.8%

$232,306

3.1%

$220,691 - $243,922

December 2016

$232,200

4.0%

$233,346

4.1%

$221,679 - $245,013

January 2017

$228,900

7.1%

$232,918

2.0%

$221,272 - $244,564

February 2017

$228,400

7.7%

$231,638

9.9%

$220,056 – $243,220

March 2017

$236,400

6.8%

$232,511

4.4%

$220,885 - $244,136

April 2017

$244,800

6%

$242,158

4.2%

$230,050 - $254,266

May 2017

$252,800

5.8%

$250,074

4.3%

$237,570 - $262,577

June 2017

TBD

TBD

$257,046

3.8%

$244,194 - $269,899

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 292,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling almost $48 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

 

SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655
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