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Existing Home Sales To Decrease Slightly In July According To Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast
Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model also projects another increase in median sales price

IRVINE, Calif., and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., July 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a minor decrease in July existing home sales. According to the Nowcast, July sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) between 5.32 and 5.68 million with a targeted number of 5.50 million, down a slight 0.4% percent from NAR's reported June sales but up 2.0 percent from July last year.

"Extraordinarily low levels of both new and existing home inventory appear to finally be catching up with the housing market," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "This is especially a problem in some of the high-demand metro areas like Coastal California and the Pacific Northwest, and there's virtually nothing available for entry level buyers, which is why first-time homebuyer numbers continue to lag behind historic norms."

Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to take a slight step back, aligning with the recent the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) release, which showed a minor downtick in home sales from the month prior. NAR reported that existing home sales in June declined to 5.52 million units, a 1.8 percent decrease from May's 5.62 million number and 0.8 percent down from a year ago.  

Last month's Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid year-over-year gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing home price for all housing types rose 6.5 percent year-over-year to $263,800 in June. This marks the 64th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The July Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing home prices will continue to make annual strides falling between $251,219 and $277,663 with a target price point of $264,441, up 0.2 percent from June and a 8.3 percent gain from last year.

"US home sales continue to zig zag month to month as strong demand clashes with persistently low supply. The resulting price gains are beneficial for existing homeowners, but restrain prospective buyers," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "While there are concerns around declining home affordability and its impact on potential buyers, the housing market should remain on solid footing thanks to a firm labor market and rising wages."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's Nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

5.60

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

November 2016

5.61

5.43

5.26 – 5.61

December 2016

5.49

5.51

5.33 - 5.69

January 2017

5.69

5.49

5.32 - 5.67

February 2017

5.48

5.51

5.34 – 5.69

March 2017

5.70

5.59

5.41 – 5.77

April 2017

5.57

5.66

5.4 – 5.76

May 2017

5.62

5.50

5.37 - 5.73

June 2017

5.52

5.49

5.28 – 5.64

July 2017

TBD

5.50

5.32 – 5.68

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Ten-X Predicted Range

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

October 2016

$232,200

6%

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 - $245,125

November 2016

$234,900

6.8%

$232,306

3.1%

$220,691 - $243,922

December 2016

$232,200

4.0%

$233,346

4.1%

$221,679 - $245,013

January 2017

$228,900

7.1%

$232,918

2.0%

$221,272 - $244,564

February 2017

$228,400

7.7%

$231,638

9.9%

$220,056 – $243,220

March 2017

$236,400

6.8%

$232,511

4.4%

$220,885 - $244,136

April 2017

$244,800

6%

$242,158

4.2%

$230,050 - $254,266

May 2017

$252,800

5.8%

$250,074

4.3%

$237,570 - $262,577

June 2017

$263,800

6.5%

$257,046

3.8%

$244,194 - $269,899

July 2017

TBD

TBD

$264,441

8.3%

$251,219 – 277,663

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 292,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling almost $48 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655
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