Existing Home Sales Continue To Decrease Slightly In August According To Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast

Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model also projects another year-over-year increase in median sales price

IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Aug. 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates a minor decrease in August existing home sales. According to the nowcast, August sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) between 5.33 and 5.68 million with a targeted number of 5.43 million, down a slight 0.1 percent from NAR's reported July sales.

"Existing home sales are in a classic 'glass half full/glass half empty' situation right now," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "While sales in August should be up slightly from last year, our nowcast model shows that they'll continue their downward trend and be lower than July sales. The combination of falling inventory and rising prices is proving to be a difficult hurdle for the market to overcome."

Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to take a slight step back, a prediction that was confirmed by the recent National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) release, which showed that total existing-home sales declined to a 5.44 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, a 1.3 percent dip from a downwardly revised 5.51 million in June, though still 2.1 percent higher than a year ago. 

Last month's Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing-home price for all housing types increased 6.2 percent from a year ago to $258,300 in July. This marks the 65th consecutive month of year-over-year gains as prices continue to advance amid a limited supply of homes for sale. The August Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing home prices will continue to make annual strides falling between $245,200 and $271,011 with a target price point of $258,105, down 0.1 percent from July, but up 7.5 percent from last year. 

"US home sales are bouncing around at an elevated level amid a number of continuing crosscurrents," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "On one hand, a firm labor market is lifting demand for homes, while on the other, tight inventory levels have limited home sales growth. And, although the resulting price gains continue to benefit existing homeowners, they also erode affordability, effectively sidelining potential buyers. While a couple of months of data is hardly confirmation of a trend, the recent decline in sales is worth monitoring to see if home sales are beginning to lose steam."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

June 2016

5.57

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

July 2016

5.39

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2016

5.33

5.52

5.34 – 5.71

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

5.60

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

November 2016

5.61

5.43

5.26 – 5.61

December 2016

5.49

5.51

5.33 - 5.69

January 2017

5.69

5.49

5.32 - 5.67

February 2017

5.48

5.51

5.34 – 5.69

March 2017

5.70

5.59

5.41 – 5.77

April 2017

5.57

5.66

5.4 – 5.76

May 2017

5.62

5.50

5.37 - 5.73

June 2017

5.51

5.49

5.28 – 5.64

July 2017

5.44

5.50

5.32 – 5.68

August 2017

TBD

5.43

5.33 – 5.68


Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Ten-X Predicted Range

May 2016

$239,700

4.8%

$238,418

4.2%

$226,497 - $250,339

June 2016

$247,700

4.8%

$243,833

3.1%

$231,642 - $256,025

July 2016

$244,100

4.3%

$250,646

7.1%

$238,114 - $263,179

August 2016

$240,200

5.1%

$248,256

8.6%

$235,843 - $260,669

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

October 2016

$232,200

6%

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 - $245,125

November 2016

$234,900

6.8%

$232,306

3.1%

$220,691 - $243,922

December 2016

$232,200

4.0%

$233,346

4.1%

$221,679 - $245,013

January 2017

$228,900

7.1%

$232,918

2.0%

$221,272 - $244,564

February 2017

$228,400

7.7%

$231,638

9.9%

$220,056 – $243,220

March 2017

$236,400

6.8%

$232,511

4.4%

$220,885 - $244,136

April 2017

$244,800

6%

$242,158

4.2%

$230,050 - $254,266

May 2017

$252,800

5.8%

$250,074

4.3%

$237,570 - $262,577

June 2017

$263,800

6.5%

$257,046

3.8%

$244,194 - $269,899

July 2017

$258,300

6.2%

$264,441

8.3%

$251,219 – $277,663

August 2017

TBD

TBD

$258,105

7.5%

$245,200 – $271,011


Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Ten-X Homes, Ten-X Commercial and Auction.com. To date, the company has sold 300,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling over $50 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655