November Existing Home Sales Increase Slightly According To Latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast

Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model also projects another strong year-over-year increase in median sales price

IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Nov. 29, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten-X, the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates existing home sales will increase slightly in November. According to the nowcast, November sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) between 5.32 and 5.61 million with a targeted number of 5.50 million, up 0.3 percent from NAR's reported October sales.

Ten-X (PRNewsFoto/Ten-X)

"Both October and November existing home sales figures have probably been distorted a bit by the hurricanes that impacted real estate transactions in Florida and Texas," said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "At least part of the reason November sales appear to be higher is that sales activity has improved significantly across the South, which represents about 40% of home sales, after a temporary dip due to the storms. But it seems unlikely that home sales will carry this momentum into the new year unless inventory levels improve dramatically."

Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to hover near their current level amid a shortage of inventory and related affordability constraints. That prediction was confirmed by the recent National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) release, which showed that total existing-home sales rose to a 5.48 million SAAR in October, up 2 percent from a downwardly revised 5.37 million in September, but still 0.9 percent below the year-ago level.

Last month's Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid annual gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing-home price for all housing types rose 5.5 percent from a year ago to $247,000 in October. This marks the 68th consecutive month of year-over-year gains as tight inventory continues to drive ample price gains. The November Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing home prices will continue to make annual strides falling between $234,440 and $259,118 with a target price point of $246,779, up 0.1 percent from October and 5.1 percent from last year. 

"While the combination of a firm labor market and low mortgage rates has certainly strengthened home buying demand, the housing market continues to face a number of challenges, most notably inventory constraints that are exacerbated by rising homeowner tenure, fewer foreclosures and elevated construction costs," said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "Moving into 2018, the looming potential for higher mortgage rates and tax reform, which may include a revision of the mortgage interest deduction and the elimination of private activity bonds, could present further obstacles."

About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home
Sales

(in millions)

Ten-X Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Ten-X Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

September 2016

5.47

5.27

5.1 – 5.44

October 2016

5.60

5.38

5.21 – 5.56

November 2016

5.61

5.43

5.26 – 5.61

December 2016

5.49

5.51

5.33 - 5.69

January 2017

5.69

5.49

5.32 - 5.67

February 2017

5.48

5.51

5.34 – 5.69

March 2017

5.70

5.59

5.41 – 5.77

April 2017

5.57

5.66

5.4 – 5.76

May 2017

5.62

5.50

5.37 - 5.73

June 2017

5.51

5.49

5.28 – 5.64

July 2017

5.44

5.50

5.32 – 5.68

August 2017

5.35

5.43

5.33 – 5.68

September 2017

5.37

5.33

5.19 – 5.54

October 2017

5.48

5.35

5.2 – 5.49

November 2017

TBD

5.50

5.32 – 5.61

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

 

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported
Existing
Home Price

YoY % Change

Ten-X Point
Estimate

YoY %
Change

Ten-X Predicted
Range

September 2016

$234,200

5.6%

$239,268

7.8%

$227,305 - $251,232

October 2016

$232,200

6%

$233,452

5.9%

$221,779 - $245,125

November 2016

$234,900

6.8%

$232,306

3.1%

$220,691 - $243,922

December 2016

$232,200

4.0%

$233,346

4.1%

$221,679 - $245,013

January 2017

$228,900

7.1%

$232,918

2.0%

$221,272 - $244,564

February 2017

$228,400

7.7%

$231,638

9.9%

$220,056 – $243,220

March 2017

$236,400

6.8%

$232,511

4.4%

$220,885 - $244,136

April 2017

$244,800

6%

$242,158

4.2%

$230,050 - $254,266

May 2017

$252,800

5.8%

$250,074

4.3%

$237,570 - $262,577

June 2017

$263,800

6.5%

$257,046

3.8%

$244,194 - $269,899

July 2017

$258,300

6.2%

$264,441

8.3%

$251,219 – $277,663

August 2017

$253,500

5.65

$258,105

7.5%

$245,200 – $271,011

September 2017

$245,100

4.2%

$251,795

7.5%

$239,205 - $264,385

October 2017

$244,103

5.5%

$244,103

5.1%

$231,897 - $256,308

November 2017

TBD

TBD

$246,779

5.1%

$234,440 - $259,118

Sources: Google, NAR, Ten-X

About Ten-X

Ten-X is the nation's leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Auction.com, Ten-X Commercial and Ten-X Homes. To date, the company has sold 323,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling almost $53 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Thomas H. Lee Partners, L.P. CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.

 

 

 

SOURCE Ten-X

For further information: Ron Anderson, Strategic Vantage, ronanderson@strategicvantage.com, (770) 715-0655


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